Interpretability of radiomics models is improved when using feature group selection strategies for predicting molecular and clinical targets in clear-cell renal cell carcinoma: insights from the TRACERx Renal study

BACKGROUND: The aim of this work is to evaluate the performance of radiomics predictions for a range of molecular, genomic and clinical targets in patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) and demonstrate the impact of novel feature selection strategies and sub-segmentations on model interpretability. METHODS: Contrast-enhanced CT scans from the first 101 patients recruited to the TRACERx Renal Cancer study (NCT03226886) were used to derive radiomics classification models to predict 20 molecular, histopathology and clinical target variables. Manual 3D segmentation was used in conjunction with automatic sub-segmentation to generate radiomics features from the core, rim, high and low enhancing sub-regions, and the whole tumour. Comparisons were made between two classification model pipelines: a Conventional pipeline reflecting common radiomics practice, and a Proposed pipeline including two novel feature selection steps designed to improve model interpretability. For both pipelines nested cross-validation was used to estimate prediction performance and tune model hyper-parameters, and permutation testing was used to evaluate the statistical significance of the estimated performance measures. Further model robustness assessments were conducted by evaluating model variability across the cross-validation folds. RESULTS: Classification performance was significant (p  0.1. Five of these targets (necrosis on histology, presence of renal vein invasion, overall histological stage, linear evolutionary subtype and loss of 9p21.3 somatic alteration marker) had AUROC > 0.8. Models derived using the Proposed pipeline contained fewer feature groups than the Conventional pipeline, leading to more straightforward model interpretations without loss of performance. Sub-segmentations lead to improved performance and/or improved interpretability when predicting the presence of sarcomatoid differentiation and tumour stage. CONCLUSIONS: Use of the Proposed pipeline, which includes the novel feature selection methods, leads to more interpretable models without compromising prediction performance. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03226886 (TRACERx Renal

Determinants of anti-PD-1 response and resistance in clear cell renal cell carcinoma

ADAPTeR is a prospective, phase II study of nivolumab (anti-PD-1) in 15 treatment-naive patients (115 multiregion tumor samples) with metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) aiming to understand the mechanism underpinning therapeutic response. Genomic analyses show no correlation between tumor molecular features and response, whereas ccRCC-specific human endogenous retrovirus expression indirectly correlates with clinical response. T cell receptor (TCR) analysis reveals a significantly higher number of expanded TCR clones pre-treatment in responders suggesting pre-existing immunity. Maintenance of highly similar clusters of TCRs post-treatment predict response, suggesting ongoing antigen engagement and survival of families of T cells likely recognizing the same antigens. In responders, nivolumab-bound CD8+ T cells are expanded and express GZMK/B. Our data suggest nivolumab drives both maintenance and replacement of previously expanded T cell clones, but only maintenance correlates with response. We hypothesize that maintenance and boosting of a pre-existing response is a key element of anti-PD-1 mode of action

Timing the Landmark Events in the Evolution of Clear Cell Renal Cell Cancer: TRACERx Renal.

Clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) is characterized by near-universal loss of the short arm of chromosome 3, deleting several tumor suppressor genes. We analyzed whole genomes from 95 biopsies across 33 patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma. We find hotspots of point mutations in the 5' UTR of TERT, targeting a MYC-MAX-MAD1 repressor associated with telomere lengthening. The most common structural abnormality generates simultaneous 3p loss and 5q gain (36% patients), typically through chromothripsis. This event occurs in childhood or adolescence, generally as the initiating event that precedes emergence of the tumor's most recent common ancestor by years to decades. Similar genomic changes drive inherited ccRCC. Modeling differences in age incidence between inherited and sporadic cancers suggests that the number of cells with 3p loss capable of initiating sporadic tumors is no more than a few hundred. Early development of ccRCC follows well-defined evolutionary trajectories, offering opportunity for early intervention

Determinants of anti-PD-1 response and resistance in clear cell renal cell carcinoma.

ADAPTeR is a prospective, phase II study of nivolumab (anti-PD-1) in 15 treatment-naive patients (115 multiregion tumor samples) with metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) aiming to understand the mechanism underpinning therapeutic response. Genomic analyses show no correlation between tumor molecular features and response, whereas ccRCC-specific human endogenous retrovirus expression indirectly correlates with clinical response. T cell receptor (TCR) analysis reveals a significantly higher number of expanded TCR clones pre-treatment in responders suggesting pre-existing immunity. Maintenance of highly similar clusters of TCRs post-treatment predict response, suggesting ongoing antigen engagement and survival of families of T cells likely recognizing the same antigens. In responders, nivolumab-bound CD8+ T cells are expanded and express GZMK/B. Our data suggest nivolumab drives both maintenance and replacement of previously expanded T cell clones, but only maintenance correlates with response. We hypothesize that maintenance and boosting of a pre-existing response is a key element of anti-PD-1 mode of action

Deterministic Evolutionary Trajectories Influence Primary Tumor Growth: TRACERx Renal.

The evolutionary features of clear-cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) have not been systematically studied to date. We analyzed 1,206 primary tumor regions from 101 patients recruited into the multi-center prospective study, TRACERx Renal. We observe up to 30 driver events per tumor and show that subclonal diversification is associated with known prognostic parameters. By resolving the patterns of driver event ordering, co-occurrence, and mutual exclusivity at clone level, we show the deterministic nature of clonal evolution. ccRCC can be grouped into seven evolutionary subtypes, ranging from tumors characterized by early fixation of multiple mutational and copy number drivers and rapid metastases to highly branched tumors with >10 subclonal drivers and extensive parallel evolution associated with attenuated progression. We identify genetic diversity and chromosomal complexity as determinants of patient outcome. Our insights reconcile the variable clinical behavior of ccRCC and suggest evolutionary potential as a biomarker for both intervention and surveillance

Tracking Cancer Evolution Reveals Constrained Routes to Metastases: TRACERx Renal.

Clear-cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) exhibits a broad range of metastatic phenotypes that have not been systematically studied to date. Here, we analyzed 575 primary and 335 metastatic biopsies across 100 patients with metastatic ccRCC, including two cases sampledat post-mortem. Metastatic competence was afforded by chromosome complexity, and we identify 9p loss as a highly selected event driving metastasis and ccRCC-related mortality (p = 0.0014). Distinct patterns of metastatic dissemination were observed, including rapid progression to multiple tissue sites seeded by primary tumors of monoclonal structure. By contrast, we observed attenuated progression in cases characterized by high primary tumor heterogeneity, with metastatic competence acquired gradually and initial progression to solitary metastasis. Finally, we observed early divergence of primitive ancestral clones and protracted latency of up to two decades as a feature of pancreatic metastases

Tracking Cancer Evolution Reveals Constrained Routes to Metastases: TRACERx Renal.

Clear-cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) exhibits a broad range of metastatic phenotypes that have not been systematically studied to date. Here, we analyzed 575 primary and 335 metastatic biopsies across 100 patients with metastatic ccRCC, including two cases sampledat post-mortem. Metastatic competence was afforded by chromosome complexity, and we identify 9p loss as a highly selected event driving metastasis and ccRCC-related mortality (p = 0.0014). Distinct patterns of metastatic dissemination were observed, including rapid progression to multiple tissue sites seeded by primary tumors of monoclonal structure. By contrast, we observed attenuated progression in cases characterized by high primary tumor heterogeneity, with metastatic competence acquired gradually and initial progression to solitary metastasis. Finally, we observed early divergence of primitive ancestral clones and protracted latency of up to two decades as a feature of pancreatic metastases

Deterministic Evolutionary Trajectories Influence Primary Tumor Growth: TRACERx Renal.

The evolutionary features of clear-cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) have not been systematically studied to date. We analyzed 1,206 primary tumor regions from 101 patients recruited into the multi-center prospective study, TRACERx Renal. We observe up to 30 driver events per tumor and show that subclonal diversification is associated with known prognostic parameters. By resolving the patterns of driver event ordering, co-occurrence, and mutual exclusivity at clone level, we show the deterministic nature of clonal evolution. ccRCC can be grouped into seven evolutionary subtypes, ranging from tumors characterized by early fixation of multiple mutational and copy number drivers and rapid metastases to highly branched tumors with >10 subclonal drivers and extensive parallel evolution associated with attenuated progression. We identify genetic diversity and chromosomal complexity as determinants of patient outcome. Our insights reconcile the variable clinical behavior of ccRCC and suggest evolutionary potential as a biomarker for both intervention and surveillance

Deterministic Evolutionary Trajectories Influence Primary Tumor Growth: TRACERx Renal.

The evolutionary features of clear-cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) have not been systematically studied to date. We analyzed 1,206 primary tumor regions from 101 patients recruited into the multi-center prospective study, TRACERx Renal. We observe up to 30 driver events per tumor and show that subclonal diversification is associated with known prognostic parameters. By resolving the patterns of driver event ordering, co-occurrence, and mutual exclusivity at clone level, we show the deterministic nature of clonal evolution. ccRCC can be grouped into seven evolutionary subtypes, ranging from tumors characterized by early fixation of multiple mutational and copy number drivers and rapid metastases to highly branched tumors with >10 subclonal drivers and extensive parallel evolution associated with attenuated progression. We identify genetic diversity and chromosomal complexity as determinants of patient outcome. Our insights reconcile the variable clinical behavior of ccRCC and suggest evolutionary potential as a biomarker for both intervention and surveillance

Interpretability of radiomics models is improved when using feature group selection strategies for predicting molecular and clinical targets in clear-cell renal cell carcinoma: insights from the TRACERx Renal study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this work is to evaluate the performance of radiomics predictions for a range of molecular, genomic and clinical targets in patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) and demonstrate the impact of novel feature selection strategies and sub-segmentations on model interpretability. METHODS: Contrast-enhanced CT scans from the first 101 patients recruited to the TRACERx Renal Cancer study (NCT03226886) were used to derive radiomics classification models to predict 20 molecular, histopathology and clinical target variables. Manual 3D segmentation was used in conjunction with automatic sub-segmentation to generate radiomics features from the core, rim, high and low enhancing sub-regions, and the whole tumour. Comparisons were made between two classification model pipelines: a Conventional pipeline reflecting common radiomics practice, and a Proposed pipeline including two novel feature selection steps designed to improve model interpretability. For both pipelines nested cross-validation was used to estimate prediction performance and tune model hyper-parameters, and permutation testing was used to evaluate the statistical significance of the estimated performance measures. Further model robustness assessments were conducted by evaluating model variability across the cross-validation folds. RESULTS: Classification performance was significant (p  0.1. Five of these targets (necrosis on histology, presence of renal vein invasion, overall histological stage, linear evolutionary subtype and loss of 9p21.3 somatic alteration marker) had AUROC > 0.8. Models derived using the Proposed pipeline contained fewer feature groups than the Conventional pipeline, leading to more straightforward model interpretations without loss of performance. Sub-segmentations lead to improved performance and/or improved interpretability when predicting the presence of sarcomatoid differentiation and tumour stage. CONCLUSIONS: Use of the Proposed pipeline, which includes the novel feature selection methods, leads to more interpretable models without compromising prediction performance. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03226886 (TRACERx Renal)